Voters in Nelson Mandela Bay - and elsewhere in the country - could have an indication of the political future of their municipalities by Wednesday.
The ANC in Nelson Mandela Bay, as well as the national leadership of the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters, have indicated that they will make announcements in this regard on Wednesday.
The ANC's Danny Jordaan has described the DA's victory claims in Nelson Mandela Bay as "premature", noting that neither the DA nor the ANC managed to get more than 50% of the votes in the Metro.
He said earlier that the ANC was in negotiations and that the party would update the people of the Metro "by Wednesday".
DA leader Mmusi Maimane said on Tuesday that he would be addressing the media on coalition negotiations together with the Chair of the DA's Federal Executive, James Selfe and DA National Spokesperson, Phumzile van Damme, in Johannesburg on Wednesday afternoon. The topic would be the outcome of the August 3 local government elections.
The party's mayoral candidate in Nelson Mandela Bay, Athol Trollip, said he would address the media on the coalition issue at 3.30pm on Wednesday afternoon.
The EFF said earlier that its leadership would, too, make an announcement regarding coalition talks on Wednesday afternoon.
The EFF confirmed earlier that it has had an open door policy from the beginning and was speaking to all parties, including the ANC, about possible coalitions in municipalities.
Party spokesperson Mbuyiseni Ndlozi told journalists ahead of the EFF's central command team meeting in Braamfontein on Monday night that the party had many options on the table, including coalitions, abstentions and re-runs, but added that all would be revealed at a press conference that it planned to hold in Alexandra, Johannesburg at noon on Wednesday.
According to the Electoral Commission of South Africa, there were 27 so-called "hung councils", in which no party attained more than 50% of the vote, country-wide after the elections. In some of these, coalitions had been formed - for example in Bitou (greater Plettenberg Bay) and Hessequa (Southern Cape, Heidelberg and environs).
Municipalities have, in terms of the Law, until Saturday to hold their first council meetings following the declaration of the election results.
There are a number of scenarios which may play out in cases where political parties can't come to an agreement.
Constitutional Law expert, Pierre de Vos, writes in his blog, "Constitutionally Speaking", that a party who has obtained the largest number of seats on a municipal council, but not an outright majority, does not have an automatic legal right to form the municipal government. This is the current status of the DA in Nelson Mandela Bay.
"Any group of parties who can cobble together a coalition of 50% plus 1 can form a coalition government, regardless of whether the largest party in the coalition is the largest party in the council. Of course, the closer to 50% of the seats a party obtains in a municipal council, the easier it will be for that party to cobble together a coalition."
But what happens if no party wins a majority of seats in a council and no coalition is formed?
De Vos explains as follows in his blog:
"If no party wins an outright majority of seats on a council and no coalition is formed in an executive mayoral system, it may render the council extremely unstable. This is so because the executive mayor and his or her mayoral committee elected in such an arrangement will depend on the support of other parties who would be able to remove the mayor and mayoral committee (or could threaten to do so) whenever it disagrees with anything the mayor and his or her mayoral committee has decided.
As an executive mayor and a mayoral committee have extensive powers to run a municipality, it will usually be in the interest of smaller parties to form a coalition with one of the large parties, as this will give them more direct say in the governing of the municipality. However, such a move may be politically fraught as the supporters of a smaller party might feel betrayed by their party forming a coalition with another party whose values are too different from their own.
But if a coalition cannot be formed because parties cannot agree on it, a minority government can still be formed. Given the procedure prescribed for the election of the speaker and the executive mayor (requiring an absolute majority of votes), smaller parties will have to decide who to support when the election of the speaker and the executive mayor is held.
A smaller party can decide to vote for the mayoral candidate from the DA, say, but refuse to form a coalition with the DA. The DA will then form a potentially unstable minority government. Similarly, it can support an ANC speaker and mayoral candidate without forming a coalition with the ANC.
If no coalition is formed, it will at first be necessary to form a minority government because a municipal council may dissolve itself only after at least two years have passed since the council was last elected and only when two thirds of council members support a motion to that effect.
Question: What happens if a coalition collapses or if smaller parties withdraw their tentative support for the speaker or mayor?
When this happens the speaker and the executive mayor can be removed from office by a simple majority vote by councillors. A new coalition can then be negotiated and a new speaker and mayor elected.
Or if this does not happen, minority parties may support the election of a new speaker and mayor without forming an official coalition with any of the larger political parties, in which case a new minority government will be formed."
