The Eight Edition of the State of the Motor Industry (SOMI), as presented by Toyota SA Motors.

CEO Andrew Kirby was treading very carefully about the motor industry’s prospects for 2025. He was cautious but optimistic. 

SOMI '25, a dynamic and multifaceted affair, served as an ideal stage for TSAM's President and CEO, Andrew Kirby, to present an insightful overview of the motor industry's current landscape from the perspective of South Africa's leading automotive brand. Additionally, the event offered a prime opportunity for Leon Theron, TSAM's Senior Vice President for Sales and Marketing, to unveil a variety of brand-new models from the company's diverse portfolio. Special guest speaker, Rory Reid from the UK, and the Dakar Press Conference featuring the rally stars of the world’s toughest race, added an entertaining touch to the proceedings.

2024: The Year That was!

In the keynote address entitled “The Year that was”, Kirby highlighted the challenges facing the South African motor industry and the importance of growing sales to over the 600,000 threshold to provide the scale needed to attract more foreign direct investment. He also stressed the need for government support. The SA government’s newly announced policy regarding incentivisation for the production of BEVs is a step in the right direction, but it is not yet enough to secure the future of the automotive production base in South Africa. This problem is exacerbated by the slow creep of de-industrialisation as well as a concomitant drop in local content which is now below the 40% mark for locally produced vehicles.

An interesting perspective presented by panelist Mikel Mabasa, CEO of NAAMSA, was that even although we have challenges, as a country our political environment is unusually stable as seen in the recent elections and the subsequent relatively incident-free transition to a GNU. In Mabasa’s words, we can look forward to a ‘year of abundance’.

Upbeat & Confident

Kirby wasn’t quite so upbeat when he made his sales forecast of 535,000 (a 3,7% increase on the actual sales for 2024) and he jokingly remarked that he should perhaps put a ‘more positive spin on the numbers’, which indicates that he’s quietly optimistic that the much-hoped-for upswing kicks in sooner and more dramatically than anticipated. Of course, as Kirby pointed out, this all hinges on the continuation of the interest-rate-cutting cycle, and further fuel price stabilisation.

 

Key Trends in the automotive sector:

Customers continue to buy down as evidenced by a continued migration to the B segment from C and D segments. Between 2023 and 2024, according to Lightstone Auto, the average selling price of passenger cars sold in last year declined by 2,27%, reinforcing this fact that consumers are purchasing cheaper cars.

The SUV phenomenon. In 2018 there were 114 model ranges that fell into the SUV/crossover category. Come 2024 and that number has risen to 166. SUVs now account for more than 50% of passenger car sales.

In-Car Tech. Customers demand a more immersive experience from their mobility device. This goes beyond wireless Apple Play/Android Auto which is standard, even on models like the humble Toyota Starlet Cross. Customisation, social media integration, lighting and image personalisation, voice/gesture control and making the vehicle a true connected space is becoming the norm as shown in models like the Lexus RX.

China In Your Hands

The rise of India and China as a production hub. Kirby presented some rather sobering statistics on this score - global Chinese production share has grown by 10,3% from 29% (2018) to 32% in 2023. Germany is no longer in the top five. From a South African perspective, locally produced vehicle sales have dropped by 6,5% from 46% in 2018 to 43% in 2023. Indian and Chinese sourced vehicles sales have increased from 18% (2018) to 37% (2023). Traditional source countries like Germany, Japan and Korea have significantly reduced.

The transition to NEV. This was a topic also covered by the expert panelist, Greg Cress who shared some interesting insights: globally more than 1 in 5 cars sold globally is an EV, in South Africa the turning point for NEVs was in 2022 with the Corolla Cross (first full retail year) which catapulted hybrid sales to 4,000 units. In 2024 that figure is approaching 12,500 units. Theron teamed up with Reid to do a Top Gear-inspired vehicle reveal. Six models were unveiled: Corolla Cross Upgrade featuring its new face, extra kit and a raft of safety equipment; Fortuner GR-S (dramatic looks, power up to 165kW/550Nm); GR Yaris Upgrade (aesthetic refinements inside and out, power hike to 210kw/400Nm and an all-new 8-speed auto option); Hilux Legend 55 (wide body/wide tread, distinctive Legend 55 exterior and interior fettling, as well as the promise of some performance enhancements); Lexus LX upgrade and the announcement of an all-new 700h hybrid variant; and the biggest news which was the reveal of the Lexus GX, a rugged yet sophisticated true on/off-roader in the mould of the LX yet playing in a size segment one down from the flagship. This model also sees the debut of a true off-roading Overtrail variant as an option.

 

Dakar: A real success!

The final SOMI segment was dedicated to the 2025 Dakar Press Conference, chaired by celebrity petrol head Rory Reid. While this year’s second-placed podium finisher – Henk Lategan and navigator Brett Cummings – commanded most of the attention, it was a fantastic result all around and Glenn Crompton, Vice President of Marketing and the Head of Gazoo Racing in SA along with Team Principal, Shameer Variawa, expressed great optimism for their chances in 2026.