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Braaivleis will be expensive this festive season


South African consumers can expect an expensive braai season this December with the inflation of meat at its highest level since November 2017 when it reached 14.9%.

This is according to FNB's Agri-Business senior agricultural economist, Paul Makube.

He says this was underpinned by a combination of factors including tight supplies due to slow livestock slaughter among other factors.

Makube says livestock producers faced enormous cost pressures emanating from a surge in raw feed input prices that necessitated the cost recovery as profit margins were severely squeezed.

The price of white maize, a major ingredient in feed manufacturing has so far increased by 43% and 28 % year-on-year(y/y).

"The price of soybeans, a major source of plant protein in livestock feed, so far averaged R10,561/ ton which is 39% higher y/y," he said.

FNB says the SA's food CPI subindex for November, meat CPI was steady but it still reached the highest level in 14 months at 10.5% year-on-year.

He says a deep dive into the meat CPI data shows that beef T-bone steak surged by 18 % y/y at R135.48 followed by brisket and chuck increase of 11.8 % and 10% respectively y/y.

Makube says while pork ribs and fillet posted modest gains of 3.9 % and 2.8 % y/y at R94.59/kg and R104.62/kg but pork chops fell by 3.8 % y/y at R89.55/kg.

He says lamb chops rose by 4.8% and chicken prices in most categories increased by 7.2 %.

Makube says FNB expects some reprieve for consumers early in the new year when the seasonal demand post-December holiday drop sets in. 

"Nonetheless, we expect some reprieve for consumers early in the New Year as the lower seasonal demand post the December holidays in a tight economic environment with costs of electricity and transport still elevated likely to place downward pressure on meat prices," he added.